Posted by
Ben Amis on Thursday, January 03, 2008 1:25:12 AM
Tomorrow is the first primary in the nation...the Iowa caucus. Did you really think I wouldn't have something to post about?
I know you've not seen me since last August, and for that I really am deeply sorry. However, I've now made it through my first college semester and will hopefully be able to post more often. For those who don't know, I'm a Theology major at Asbury College. Even my contact information has been updated to reflect my new residence!
So, in spite of my lack of activity, if you've seen some of the articles I've work on at SmallGovTimes.com, I've been supporting long-shot candidate and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee (R). Well, Since then, The Governor has shot into the top tier and is giving former Gov. Mitt Romney, R-Mass., a run for his money -- no matter that Romney is out funding Huckabee 20-to-1. The two are in a dead heat for Iowa, and I really feel like it's a toss-up right now. Either of these men could come out ahead, but neither of them will be able to get too far from the other - it'll be down to the wire.
I believe we'll see Sen. John McCain, R-Arizona, come in for a decent third in Iowa, but I feel that he will make second in New Hampshire, whose primary which is just a few days away. I thought McCain was finished at one point, but he's really surprised me and I wish him the best. I don't believe Huckabee will be able to appeal too greatly to the New England demographic and should probably spend a few days there and secure a third-place spot, and then head down to South Carolina where he can make a big dent. The last real contender in the race is, of course former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who I think could gain some ground in both New Hampshire and/or Florida.
For the Democrats...Iowa serves as a very interesting event. While the Republicans are very similar to a primary where caucus-goers simply vote for their candidate, the Democrats are a little more complicated. For Democrats, people have to choose a candidate, and if their candidate doesn't get above 15%, they're eliminated and the others try to convince you to make a second choice and caucus with another candidate, or you can simply leave. This method makes the Democratic caucus decidedly more dynamic and interesting to watch. Many times, this has made or broken a candidate in Iowa, and the second-choice politics have already been clearly seen as having an influence.
Right now, The Democrats are in a three-way tie between Sen. Hilary Clinton, D-New York, Sen. Barak Obama, D-Illinois, and former Sen. John Edwards, D-North Carolina. However, I believe we could easily see Obama or Edwards come out with the vote tomorrow. I believe Edwards, with his social change and action agenda, is a very popular second among Iowa democrats and therefore could garner votes that way. I also believe the same for the political young-blood. Obama, who has officially received a "second-choice" endorsement from Congressman and President Candidate Dennis Kucinich, D-Ohio, whoasked his supporters at an event that, if for whatever reason, he doesn't reach the 15% mark, to make Obama their second choice. With this, I believe either of these candidates could receive the majority tomorrow.
I do not believe that Hilary will cease the vote, simply because she is such a polarizing figure most people either pledge undying support, or consider her as one of the last people they would pick. Because of this, I don't expect her to pick up too many second-choice votes, meaning I feel like she won't be able to keep up with the second-choice votes being thrown to Edwards and Obama. I also feel like if Obama and Clinton continue their fighting and negativity, it will turn the party off to both of them, and having them running to Edwards. So many people have talked about how much danger Edwards is in, but I honestly look for him to come back and make something out of himself in this race. I believe that, if things continue as they have, Edwards has a really good shot at getting the nomination, and depending on how the Republicans operate, he could very well be the next President of the United States.