Posted by
Ben Amis on Friday, January 04, 2008 1:23:53 AM
Well, at just after 1 AM here in the east, I sit as I close out my browser windows, cancel live feeds and streams, and turn down my television after this good and historic night in U.S. politics and I must say I'm happy with the results that have come out of Iowa tonight, and not just because I got it right.
I'm glad to see Huckabee win in Iowa, and I'm glad to see McCain come in fourth literally right behind Fred Thompson (literally, both men have received 13%). I also congratulate former Gov. Mitt Romney on his work in Iowa coming in second. I believe now I can say that since Huckabee has won this caucus, he can go on to achieve second-place in New Hampshire as long as he keeps it up, and maybe even first, although I want to give that title to McCain, I believe it will be close. Romney will probably end up third, although I feel like we have a long way to go from now until Tuesday, anything could still happen.
Also, congratulations to Senator Barack Obama. The African-American from Illinois has made history tonight, being the first black man to win the Iowa Caucus, and by an eight percentage point margin at that! Now, I don't have to say that I won't support Obama for President, my lines are drawn, but I'm not going to criticize policy tonight. I feel like Obama has a good chance in New Hampshire now, and can definitely get first or second place. I believe we're going to see the Hilary Clinton campaign working overtime for the next five days in New Hampshire to get up her numbers to try to win New Hampshire. I believe it's possible she could receive first or second place. Edwards had an amazing show coming in second, I believe he's solidified his position in this race for awhile now, just like I said he would. I think all three of these candidates will have to fight and campaign their hearts out in the next five days.
Clinton is coming into New Hampshire behind, but she's going to be geographically closer to her constituency. Obama is coming into this ahead but removed from his more Mid-Western appeal, and Edwards is probably the most disadvantaged as a southern democrat coming into New England. I believe Obama's appeal to the young demographic will keep him up high, and put him in a dead heat again with Hilary who's now in a state that's much closer to home. I believe the order that these candidates will come out in is important, but it will be very close. The only one I can really see slipping is Edwards, who could easily make up for it in South Carolina, where he'll be near his home. These three are going to be competing for awhile still yet.
So, congratulations to our winners, and good show to those who did not do too well. We say goodbye to Senators Dodd and Biden tonight, who've withdrawn from the race. We are now, as one commentator has said, in a dead sprint. I believe that after South Carolina, the GOP nomination will most likely be fairly well-defined, but I can't yet say that for the Dems, although I have my thoughts that I'll keep to myself for now. I think it will take Super Tuesday to show us who the likely Democrat will be, and will solidify the GOP nomination.
Still anything can happen, this isn't over, and none of our main players are fully out quite yet. Watch these next few races closely, and keep checking back here, I'm sure I'm going to have plenty to say.