Posted by
Ben Amis on Monday, January 07, 2008 11:33:13 AM
With only twenty-four hours left until the nation's first primary in New Hampshire, after a sprint of campaigning, debating, and "foruming"...how are the candidates stacking up?? Let's mark this my "Official Analyzing and Prediction Poll" for New Hampshire 2008.
First, the Republicans. According to my friends over at Real Clear Politics,
the average of the polls are putting Senator John McCain, R-Ariz., ahead by nearly five points, with former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts right on his heels. My personally endorsed candidate, the former governor of Arkansas Mike Huckabee, is trailing in a distant third place to the other two front-runners. I believe that, if any prediction can be gleaned from these numbers, I believe things will probably play out as these polls say. I expect McCain to win New Hampshire, although I doubt it will be a wide spread, with Romney right on his tail. The Arizona Senator will most likely win because he did well in 2000, and also because he's put immensely more time and effort into New Hampshire than Romney did, who was too busy focused on Iowa, which he didn't win anyway. I do believe, however, the Huckabee can close the gap in New Hampshire, and maybe even give Romney a run for his money at second place if he can really step it up, but I don't believe he will win. Huckabee needs to focus on South Carolina, where he's already leading in the polls, and Romney should be concerned with Michigan, where his father, the late George Romney, was governor.
For the Democrats, Real Clear Politics has the
Junior Senator from Illinois Barack Obama, leading by over seven points. Some polls have him leading even further, such as a recent USA Today/Gallup poll that gives the history-making candidate a thirteen point lead. The only polls in which Clinton is still leading would be a recent Suffolk/WHDH poll that places the New York senator at two points ahead, another Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll which gives her a one point lead. I don't think there's much debate, I think we'll see Clinton coming in at a decent second, but not close to Obama. John Edwards is holding his own at third, but I don't see him doing any surging, I believe he'll be staying right there tomorrow. I'm giving this one to Obama. Clinton needs to focus on bigger states, and Edwards needs to be pandering to the South.
Now, I'll remind everyone reading, the New Hampshire electorate is very different from the Iowa electorate we saw last week. New Hampshire is indefinitely more secular, and a great deal more independent, nearly forty percent of New Hampshire voters are registered Independent! So, with that in mind, those Independent undecided voters could always swing the vote and blow predictions out of the water, because they can vote in either primary they choose. I'll be watching the results like a hawk, you can be sure of that, this'll be interesting.